“ Η ιστορία είναι αληθινή, όπως μπορείτε να δείτε στις σελίδες 1-2, εδώ
http://cogsci.uwaterloo.ca/Articles/Thagard.econ-explns.lissack.2013.pdf
Let me start by telling you my favorite story about decision making. This is
a story about Howard Raiffa, who is a famous decision theorist, and
Ernest Nagel, who was a famous philosopher of science. The story takes
place when they were both teaching at Columbia. I’ve been telling this
story for years and I didn’t have any reason to believe it was true until I
told it about ten years ago at the University of Tel Aviv and one of the
people in the audience said, "Oh, I was a student of Ernest Nagel. I heard
this story from him."
Nagel encountered Raiffa in the hallway. Raiffa was pacing up and down
muttering to himself, "What should I do? What should I do?" and Nagel
said, "Howard, what’s the problem?" and Raiffa said, "Oh, it’s really
difficult. I got a job offer and I just can’t decide whether to accept it or not."
Nagel, who did a lot of work on probability theory, said, "Well, Howard,
you’re one of the world’s greatest experts on decision theory, so why don’t
you draw out the decision tree? Why don’t you plug in the probabilities
and utilities, calculate how to maximize your expected utility and decide?"
and Raiffa looked back at him and said, "Ernest, this is serious." ”
